Human Population Growth

I have spent a lot of time telling you that exponential growth is an unrealistic model of population growth. Interestingly, human populations have experienced exponential-like growth. How can this be?

What makes humans different from other species?

In other species per capita birth rates and per capita deaths rates are density dependent. However, as human populations have increased there has been no corresponding decline in per capita birth rates or increase in per capita death rates. What makes humans different from other species?

Humans have the ability to alter their environment so that they can avoid the density dependent effects on birth and death rates. 1) Humans have increased food production by improvements in agriculture (e.g., irrigation, fertilization, mechanized farming, genetically improved crops). 2) Humans have been able to decrease death rates by improvements in medicine and public health (things as simple as not pooping in the water you drink helps a lot!). 3) Humans have elimnated most human predators (ocassionally, someone gets killed by a shark or a mountain lion).

Where is human population growth occuring?

The rates of human population growth are not the same in all regions. Today, human populations are increasing in size much faster in developing countries (e.g., Mexico, other countries in Central America, Africa, and Southeast Asia) than they are in developed countries (e.g, USA, Canda, Western Europe). The figure at the top of this post shows the patterns of population growth in developed and developing nations.

Thus we see that populations are increasing most rapidly in the countries that are least able to deal with a rapidly increasing population. See "Population Challenges-The Basics" that can be downloaded from the Population Institute's website.
http://www.populationinstitute.org/population-issues/index.php

Human Population Growth Problem?

There is a great deal of debate about whether increasing human populations are a problem or not, and if they are what should be done about it. Unfortunately, we don't have time to discuss this issue in very much detail in class. My personal opinion is that we have too many people consuming too many resources and the last thing that we need are billions more people living on the planet. This is an issue that I am always intersted in talking more about if you would like to chat.

Further Reading

"Human Population Explostion" from the EoE.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Human_population_explosion


Website

World Population Clock (and other interesting info)
http://www.worldometers.info/population/

Really Cool Video

Here is a link to a YouTube video on "World Population" The first minute and a half or so is a little boring, so you can skip over it if you wish. However, I think the animation showing when and where human population growth has been occuring is really cool.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc

Expected Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course a fully engaged student should be able to

- describe patterns of human population growth in developed and developing nations

- discuss some reasons why the pattern of population growth in humans is so different from that in other species

- describe the demographic transition

- discuss their own personal view of human population growth.

COP 19

COP 19, a meeting sponsored by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is currently taking place in Warsaw, Poland.  One of the main goals of this conference is to start building towards an agreement, scheduled to be completed in 2015) under which all nations in the world agree on actions they will take to attempt to decrease carbon emissions enough to limit future temperature increase to less than 2 degrees C.

So far this meeting has not gotten a lot of attention in the news in the US.

Here is a link to a PowerPoint Presentation I prepared about COP 19 for another class (this info is for your information only.... not required for this class)

http://www.slideshare.net/MarkMcGinley/cop-19


Daily Press Updates From COP 19

http://unfccc.int/press/news_room/items/2768.php?topic=all

This site will post links to articles written about  COP 19 from around the world.  It will be interesting to see how different countries discuss this information.

Population Ecology: Logistic Growth

We are trying to develop a mathematical model that helps us to understand patterns of population growth. So far our first attempt, the exponential growth model, did not help us to understand population growth (for reasons that I hope that you understand by now).

The "Real" world

In our attempt to think about population growth in the real world, we attempted to examine how per capita birth rates and per capita death rates should vary as population size varies. The model that describes this pattern of growth is known as the logistic growth model. It is important to realize that although this model is much more realistic, and therefore useful to us, than the exponential growth model, the logistic growth model still only examines what I call "the theoretical real world". That is, this model applies to our ideas about how populations should generally behave and do not thus relate directly to studying the population sizes of white tailed deer in central Texas or parrot fish on a coral reef in Fiji.

Logistic Growth

We have discussed why, in the real world, r should decrease as population sizes increase. If this is the case then there is a population size at which the per capita birth rate equals the per capita death rate. We call this population size the carrying capacity.

1) When populations are smaller than the carrying capacity we expect them to increase in size until they reach the carrying capacity.

2) When populations are larger than carrying capacity we expect them to decrease in size until they reach the carrying capacity.

3) When the population size equals the carrying capacity we expect no change in the size of the population.

The logistic growth equation is a mathematical equation developed by biologists to describe patterns of population growth consistent with the ideas above. Before focusing on the biological insights that we can gain from the logistic growth model (the real purpose of everything we have been doing) it is important to really understand patterns of logistic growth. Hopefully, this powerpoint presentation will help you understand these patterns better.

Powerpoint Presentation

Click here for a powerpoint presentation entitled "Fun With Graphs- Logistic Growth"

http://www.slideshare.net/secret/gyB3cjnSplLw41

NOTE: THERE IS AN ERROR ON SLIDE 16 OF THIS PRESENTATION!!!

The title of the graph on slide 16 should read "Logistic Growth: dN/dt vs t (Not N), N initially << k"

The x-axis of the graph is TIME (please ignore the values of K on the x-axis because K does not belong on the time axis). The shape of the graph is correct. Make sure you change the x-axis to Time rather than Population Size.

Expected Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course a fully engaged students should be able to

- define the carrying capacity

- draw, and interpret the following graphs associated with logistic growth
a) how population size changes over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carrying capacity

- discuss the causes for the shape of the s-curve (this answer will need to include a discussion of both math and biology)

- discuss the factors that regulate population size, be able to distinguish between density dependent and density independent factors that regulate population growth and give examples

Population Ecology: Exponential Growth

From the first lesson on Population Ecology we learned that the population growth rate (dN/dt) can be calculated as the product of the per capita growth rate (r) and the population size (N).

dN/dt = rN

This is the fundamental equation describing population growth and this equation is always true.

If we want to use this equation to analyze how population sizes change over time, then it makes sense to start by examining the simplest formulation of this equation which occurs when the per capita growth rate is constant. The equation dN/dt = rN when r is constant is known as the exponential growth equation and this equation describes a patter on growth known as exponential growth.

The graph plotting how population size changes over time is shown in the Exponential Growth article. This graph shows an exponential growth curve (sometimes known as the "j-curve"). If you have questions about why the graph has this shape let me know and I will try to explain it more thoroughly.

It is important that you are able to look at this graph and determine all of the information held in the graph. The exponential growth curve allows us to discuss how two parameters change over time- 1) the population size (shown by the x-axis) and 2) the population growth rate (shown by the slope of the line). I find that it is easier to discuss only one parameter at a time so let's start with the population size.

1) Over time, the population size increases (we know this because the line has a positive slope).

Now let's think about the population growth rate.

2) Over time, the population growth rate increases (we know this because the line gets steeper over time.

3) Over time, the rate at which the population growth rate increases over time, increases over time (we know this because the slope increases faster and faster over time).

Thus, if populations are growing exponentially then they keep increasing in size at an ever faster rate forever and ever.

Exponential Growth is Unrealistic
Because population sizes keep increasing at ever faster rates for ever, exponential growth does not seem to be an accurate description of population growth in most animals, plants, and microbes. If this is an unrealistic model then why did I teach it to you? I started with exponential growth becasue it is the simplest model of population growth and scientists always like to describe the world using the simplest models that they can.

Obviously, in this case we have started with a model that is too simple to realistically describe the world. What is wrong with the exponential growth model? The fundamental assumption we made about exponential growth is that the per capita growth rate is constant. This must not be a realistic assumption.

It is important that you understand, and are able to explain, both the mathematical reasons and biological reasons that exponential growth is an unreasonable model of population growth. I tried to explain biologically why exponential growth is unrealistic in the "Exponential Growth" article and the attached Powerpoint presentation so take a look at those.

Suggested Readings

Here are some articles you should look at from the Encyclopedia of the Earth. I wrote these so they are brilliant!!!

Population Ecology http://www.eoearth.org/article/Population_ecology

Exponential Growth http://www.eoearth.org/article/Exponential_growth

Logistic Growth http://www.eoearth.org/article/Logistic_growth

Carrying Capacity http://www.eoearth.org/article/Carrying_capacity

Intraspecific Competition http://www.eoearth.org/article/Intraspecific_competition

Powerpoint Presentation

Click here for the Powerpoint presentation "Why is Exponential Growth Unrealistic?"
http://www.slideshare.net/secret/IDPugQtl2wvONv

Expected Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course a fully engaged student should be able to

- draw and interpret the graph that shows how population size change over time in exponential growth

- explain why exponential growth is an unrealistic pattern of growth for most species

- define and explain the carrying capacity

Killifish in Africa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sy3R3f_GCY

Presentaion Schedule

November

15- Grace,
       Sarah M.
       Ashleigh

18- Taylor
      Taylor
       Natalie

20- Kelsey
      Kenneth
      Brenna

22- Madison
      Bee
      Vince

25- Sarah F.
      Maggie
      Kaila

December

2- Harrison
    Dawson
    Brian

4- Savanna
    Brooke
    Isaac

If All of the Ice Caps Melted: Cool Interactive Map From National Geographic

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map